The U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan has warned that a peace deal could risk the Taliban`s return to power, as did the 1973 Paris peace agreement, which defeated the U.S.-backed South Vietnamese government in the Sigons case.   Pakistan warned that rising tensions in the Gulf region following the assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani could affect the already delayed peace process between the United States and Afghanistan.  Given that the agreement contains language on various measures that the Afghan government should take, its non-participation in the talks has created an obstacle to future negotiations and has angered Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and other Afghan officials. Specifically, in the agreement, the United States agreed that up to 5,000 Taliban prisoners would be released by the Afghan government as a “sign of trust” between the Taliban and the Kabul government by March 10, 2020, and the Taliban would release 1,000 prisoners they keep at the same time. However, the prisoners are held by the Afghan government, not the United States. Since the Afghan government was not part of the agreement, it does not feel obliged to release Taliban prisoners they consider terrorists. The next stage of negotiations between the Taliban and the Afghan government is therefore frozen. Both the agreement between the United States and the Taliban and the joint declaration decide to create a lasting ceasefire in Afghanistan as a precondition for a political solution.
Al Qaeda, an international terrorist network, was granted a submarine in Afghanistan on the condition that it did not irritate the United States, but Osama bin Laden rejected the agreement in 1998 when he orchestrated bombings of U.S. embassies in East Africa. The episode was indicative of the tensions that have on the day between the two groups. The Taliban were basically parochists, while Al Qaeda was targeting global jihad.  For the Taliban, internal divisions have made it more difficult to implement the agreement between the United States and the Taliban and have raised questions about the Taliban`s useful participation in the internal talks in Afghanistan. Although the Taliban`s deputy leader, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, signed the agreement between the United States and the Taliban on behalf of the group, the Taliban are not a monolith. Many different political groups need to be recognized or considered in all negotiations. Some Taliban members have already refused to acknowledge the agreement and some may try to strengthen relations with the Islamic State in Chorasan. Given that some of these groups may not be willing to compromise, the prospect of further fragmentation within the movement could seriously hamper peace efforts.